Ask HN: What is the black swan event that could bring down GPU costs?
FrankWilhoit13 hours ago
A collapse of demand. That swan looks pretty white to me.
kbesplv11 hours ago
Training is 10-100x more compute than inference. The current rush is all training. When it tips over to mostly inference, a lot of that hardware is just going to sit there.
enjoyyourlife7 hours ago
Isn't it the opposite? It seems like the AI labs are using up way more compute for people to use their LLMs than to train them
verdverm6 hours ago
MiMo-2.6 RL'd for $3.5M too, training costs are coming down super fast.
The build out is for inference, Jevon's Paradox is what we are doing. Some of this will play into training, but it's definitely more about inference.
vibe_that_works11 hours ago
It's already happening. Cost of capital is increasing, Nvidia and SK Hynix going down. This will follow the patterns of a "real demand but overbuilt" bubble like railway back in the day.
I personally plant to buy GPUs in about 18 months.
segmondy10 hours ago
China